This Friday the US jobs report will be the focus of the market. Since most of the economic reports of late have blamed less than stellar results on the weather, traders are probably numb like frostbitten fingers by now. A disappointing number will probably not surprise anyone. The way the market has been behaving lately, bad news will be good for the market. The risk may be that the number is much better than expected. That may spark fear that the Federal Reserve Board may speed up the pace of reducing the bond buying program which has settled and helped the market take off the past few years. With the market at all time highs, perhaps a good employment number will be the opportunity for traders to take profits and lead the market lower. Only to take it back up later. What matters is that you are prepared to ride the wave.
Be prepared with some statistics for the ETFs that track the S&P 500 (SPY), Gold, (GLD), and US Ten Year Treasury Rates (IEF). The numbers below represent, in absolute value, the size of the moves of the given category. For example, the overnight move (Day Before Close to Open on NFP) for SPY (S&P500) is on average $1.90 up or down. So if you are making a directional trade or a volatility play, understand the size of the move you can expect.
| Ticker | Spot Price | Open to Close on NFP Day | Day Before Close to Open on NFP Day | Day Before Close to Close on NFP Day | Typical 1 Standard Deviation |
| SPY | $188.50 | $1.39 | $1.90 | $1.43 | $2.29 |
| GLD | $130.05 | $0.86 | $1.72 | $1.33 | $1.70 |
| IEF | $101.77 | $0.24 | $0.35 | $0.26 | $0.46 |
Always be ready for a surprise and know the boundaries of your trades.
Good luck and trade rationally.