Positive Sum Trading

Tag: Euro

  • Market Commentary – July 7, 2015

    The Greek referendum brought a “No” and the world has not ended, so what is next?

    Charts Courtesy of Yahoo Finance.

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  • Market Commentary – June 2, 2014

    After a shortened trading week with very little volume, has the stage been set for traders to come roaring back to work?

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  • Market Commentary – February 24, 2014

    Despite the break from the polar vortex, trading was frozen last week.  Was the weekend warm enough to thaw the markets before the next freeze?

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Monte Carlo Fallacy

At the roulette wheel at Le Grande Casino in Monte Carlo, Monaco, the color black came up 26 times in a row. The probability of the occurrence was 1 in 136,823,184.  The incident is cited as an illustration of the gambler’s fallacy, because after the wheel stopped at black ten straight times, casino patrons began betting large sums of money on red, on the logic that black could not possibly come up again. The odds of red or black coming up on any individual spin were the same each time—18 out of 37; to no surprise of statisticians, “the casino made several million francs that night”.

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