Tag: Nasdaq

  • Market Commentary – July 21, 2015

    With much of the latest round of news headlines out of the way we are marching on through a new round of earnings reports.  Will the market rally help keep equities positive for 2015 throughout the summer?

    Charts Courtesy of Yahoo Finance.

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  • Market Commentary – July 7, 2015

    The Greek referendum brought a “No” and the world has not ended, so what is next?

    Charts Courtesy of Yahoo Finance.

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  • Market Commentary – February 24, 2015

    Now that the year has started to take shape it is time to put money to work or to at least put work into protecting money if staying on the sidelines is the appropriate choice for you.

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  • Market Commentary – February 2, 2015

    With the end of January behind us, it is time to look forward to the next few months of trading.  One of the consistently looming questions is about volatility in the markets.  Remember, historically January is not the most volatile month.  However, there is some merit to looking at monthly historical cycles.

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  • Market Commentary – January 26, 2015

    As the new year begins to take shape and certain market dynamics are beginning to play out has your trading style adjusted?  Despite a seemingly volatile 2015, most equity indices are flat for the year.  Your trading performance should be indicative of how you have weathered the storm that has taken broad equity markets everywhere, but ultimately nowhere.

    Charts Courtesy of Yahoo Finance

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  • Market Commentary – December 30, 2014

    The end of the year is upon us.  In terms of trading, the year end should just be a phase the market is passing through.  However, you should still set a resolution to be a more effective trader or investor.  The scorecard is resetting to zero soon.  That means prior results, both good and bad, should not be brought into the new year and either give you inflated confidence or extreme despair.  The odds of a winning trade are still the same.  Make it a point to stick to trades where the most likely outcome is a positive one.

    Charts Courtesy of Yahoo Finance

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  • Market Commentary – November 4, 2014

    Now that the market has scared investors away from buying the recent dip, will it scare investors into thinking they will miss the next leg up?

    Charts Courtesy of Yahoo Finance

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  • Market Commentary – March 31, 2014

    Has the sideways trading in the S&P 500 frustrated you?  Perhaps it has saved you by keeping your mistakes manageable.  Maybe you have been selling options to sell volatility to benefit from this range bound trade.  Whatever the case hopefully you are not lulled into the trap of complacency.

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Monte Carlo Fallacy

At the roulette wheel at Le Grande Casino in Monte Carlo, Monaco, the color black came up 26 times in a row. The probability of the occurrence was 1 in 136,823,184The incident is cited as an illustration of the gambler’s fallacy, because after the wheel stopped at black ten straight times, casino patrons began betting large sums of money on red, on the logic that black could not possibly come up again. The odds of red or black coming up on any individual spin were the same each time—18 out of 37; to no surprise of statisticians, “the casino made several million francs that night”.

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