Category: Timeless Advice

Topics that give insight into the world of trading the market. These posts are words of wisdom to help guide the beginner and for the experienced participant they are a reminder of concepts to keep in mind that will help to keep you focused. The posts here will be most useful to you by provoking thought and reflection.

  • Nobody Goes Broke Taking Profits

    An important concept to grasp when trading is to recognize when you have beaten the odds and it is time to cash out.  This is where the market will resemble a casino.  When you make an investment or trade you make a bet on a direction and magnitude, not unlike guessing the wind conditions.  Instead of thinking of probabilities and distributions of asset prices and so forth, let’s take a step back.  You made a guess (albeit an educated one) on the speed and direction of the wind. You got them both right.  Or maybe you are close, you guessed North 5 knots and the wind is blowing Northwest 4.2 knots.  Close enough.  The point is that you are in a profitable trade.  What do you do now?  You have several options: (more…)

  • So You Want to Trade Actively – Things to Consider

    You may have many reasons for wanting to take control of your investments and be your own trader. Maybe you have had some success picking stocks, maybe you’ve had some catastrophes and want to turn it around, perhaps you would feel like you can supplement your current income, invest for retirement, or even trade as a career. There are many reasons why you should become actively involved in investment markets. There are also a number of reasons why you should stay away.  It is important that you recognize that you need to have an idea about what is happening with your money and why.  Even if you only have a  401k or other retirement account, you have money at risk.  Do not let anyone tell you otherwise.  It is important to understand the how and how much of this risk.  It is almost never zero.

    Consider this a brief overview.   This will serve as a primer that should get you thinking about what you need to do and how to prioritize your efforts to be able to start actively managing your investments and begin trading on your own, or not. (more…)

Monte Carlo Fallacy

At the roulette wheel at Le Grande Casino in Monte Carlo, Monaco, the color black came up 26 times in a row. The probability of the occurrence was 1 in 136,823,184The incident is cited as an illustration of the gambler’s fallacy, because after the wheel stopped at black ten straight times, casino patrons began betting large sums of money on red, on the logic that black could not possibly come up again. The odds of red or black coming up on any individual spin were the same each time—18 out of 37; to no surprise of statisticians, “the casino made several million francs that night”.

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