After a shortened trading week with very little volume, has the stage been set for traders to come roaring back to work?
Market Commentary – May 27, 2014
After a long holiday weekend the equity market finds itself at fresh new highs. Will traders look to upcoming economic data, or will complacency set in as vacations will be in focus?
Market Commentary – May 19, 2014
After another touch of all time highs, the equity market took a spill. Things looked like they perked up on Friday. The question remains if the equity markets can match the action of the US treasury markets.
Charts Courtesy of Yahoo Finance
Market Update – April 28, 2014
Markets up, Markets down. With no clear direction, the only direction is to stay nimble and keep expectations in check.
US Employment Report – April 4, 2014 – A Historical Statistical Perspective
Are you ready for the US Employment report this month? By now the excuses of harsh weather are over with.
Continue reading “US Employment Report – April 4, 2014 – A Historical Statistical Perspective”
Market Commentary – March 10, 2014
Now that daylight savings time has started, the extra sunshine should shed some more light on the markets. After the latest US employment report, and continued news out of Ukraine, the equity market continued its march along to all time highs. However the reaction was subdued. The real action was in US Treasury Bonds.
US Employment Report Preview – March 2014
This Friday the US jobs report will be the focus of the market. Since most of the economic reports of late have blamed less than stellar results on the weather, traders are probably numb like frostbitten fingers by now. A disappointing number will probably not surprise anyone. The way the market has been behaving lately, bad news will be good for the market. The risk may be that the number is much better than expected. That may spark fear that the Federal Reserve Board may speed up the pace of reducing the bond buying program which has settled and helped the market take off the past few years. With the market at all time highs, perhaps a good employment number will be the opportunity for traders to take profits and lead the market lower. Only to take it back up later. What matters is that you are prepared to ride the wave.
Continue reading “US Employment Report Preview – March 2014”
Ready For the Monthly US Employment Report – February 2014?
The US Non-Farm Payroll report is a popular day for professional traders. The day usually brings a sharp move the moment the report is released on the first Friday of the month at 8:30 AM (EST). Traders usually like to take advantage of the sharp move and close out a position seconds, minutes, or hours later. However, if you hold on for too long, you might be disappointed, as the moves may come back to earth. Be prepared with some statistics for the ETFs that track the S&P 500 (SPY), Gold, (GLD), and US Ten Year Treasury Rates (IEF). The numbers below represent, in absolute value, the size of the moves of the given category. For example, the overnight move (Day Before Close to Open on NFP) for SPY (S&P500) is on average $1.78 up or down. So if you are making a directional trade or a volatility play, understand the size of the move you can expect.
| Ticker | Spot Price | Open to Close on NFP Day | Day Before Close to Open on NFP Day | Day Before Close to Close on NFP Day | Typical 1 Standard Deviation 1 Day |
| SPY | $177.04 | $1.30 | $1.78 | $1.35 | $2.15 |
| GLD | $121.20 | $0.80 | $1.60 | $1.25 | $1.59 |
| IEF | $101.75 | $0.24 | $0.35 | $0.26 | $0.46 |
Don’t let trades outlive their usefulness.
Good luck and trade rationally.
Market Commentary – February 3, 2014
Last week saw a lot of choppiness in the market with a bearish tone in the market. The S&P 500 rallies were mostly met with selling. The news of the emerging market outflows continued to dominate the headlines. Underwhelming earnings and guidance from some important companies did not help either. However the rallies did show that there were interested buyers. They just did not get any instant gratification and are being forced to sweat. Now onto this week.
Market Comments – January 27, 2014
Hope you are ready for some action. Last week’s price action was pretty weak for equities. There were concerns over emerging markets such as Argentina and Turkey. Some stories of signs of a slowdown in the Chinese economy. Earnings have not been particularly stellar save for a few exceptions. The continued expectation of the US Fed tapering their bond purchasing program. All of these factors were reported in regards to the sell off. The post sell off reaction along with a flurry of news and reports should lead to a busy week for trading. Highlights will include:
Monday – Apple Earnings, New Home Sales. Tuesday – Durable Goods Orders, Ford Earnings. Wednesday – FOMC Announcement, Boeing Earnings. Thursday GDP, Amazon and Google Earnings. Friday – Mastercard Earnings, Personal Income.