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Tag: Emplolyment

Posted on February 2, 2015February 8, 2015

Market Commentary – February 2, 2015

With the end of January behind us, it is time to look forward to the next few months of trading.  One of the consistently looming questions is about volatility in the markets.  Remember, historically January is not the most volatile month.  However, there is some merit to looking at monthly historical cycles.

Continue reading “Market Commentary – February 2, 2015”

Posted on May 1, 2014May 1, 2014

US Employment Report – May 2, 2014

Are you ready for the US Employment report this month?  The US Federal Reserve has shifted its policy on interest rates from being tied to an unemployment rate target to a broader set of objectives.  Will the markets still react to the report?

Continue reading “US Employment Report – May 2, 2014”

Posted on April 3, 2014April 8, 2014

US Employment Report – April 4, 2014 – A Historical Statistical Perspective

Are you ready for the US Employment report this month?  By now the excuses of harsh weather are over with.

Continue reading “US Employment Report – April 4, 2014 – A Historical Statistical Perspective”

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Monte Carlo Fallacy

At the roulette wheel at Le Grande Casino in Monte Carlo, Monaco, the color black came up 26 times in a row. The probability of the occurrence was 1 in 136,823,184.  The incident is cited as an illustration of the gambler’s fallacy, because after the wheel stopped at black ten straight times, casino patrons began betting large sums of money on red, on the logic that black could not possibly come up again. The odds of red or black coming up on any individual spin were the same each time—18 out of 37; to no surprise of statisticians, “the casino made several million francs that night”.

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