The more things change, the more they stay the same. After a week full of economic news, the market ended up almost where it began last week. Will this week break the monotony? Will the popular catchphrase of “sell in May and go away” hold? The media will be using that phrase repeatedly this week.
US Employment Report – May 2, 2014
Are you ready for the US Employment report this month? The US Federal Reserve has shifted its policy on interest rates from being tied to an unemployment rate target to a broader set of objectives. Will the markets still react to the report?
Market Update – April 28, 2014
Markets up, Markets down. With no clear direction, the only direction is to stay nimble and keep expectations in check.
Earnings History – Amazon 1Q2014
Next up on the earnings docket is Amazon. To be more precise, next up on the lack of earnings is Amazon.
Earnings History – Apple and Facebook 1Q2014
Two of the most widely used products in technology will report their earnings today. Apple, the pioneer in smart phones and tablets has allowed Facebook to grow to where it is today. Interestingly enough is how Apple, by virtue of its success, has forced Facebook to pay more attention to its mobile platform for advertising revenue. Continue reading “Earnings History – Apple and Facebook 1Q2014”
Mid-Week Update April 23, 2014
So far the week has been very bullish with the market switching directions on a whim. Have you adjusted with the market?
Earnings History – Netflix 1Q2014
It is time for one of the more volatile stocks (also a favorite in retail trading) to report earnings for the last quarter ending on Jan 31, 2014. So will you be glued to Netflix or glued to the market in preparation for the earnings?
Earnings History – Google and IBM 1Q2014
Next up on the earnings calendar we have two tech heavyweights. Interestingly enough, they are not quite competitors just yet, however they have more to offer each other than they probably let on. IBM can handle big data and Google can generate big data.
Market Commentary – April 14, 2014
if you felt like the market was stuck in mud then you should be happy with the volatility we have now. Be careful what you ask for, you might just get it.
Earnings History – JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo 1Q2014
The first of the major US banks report their first quarter 2014 earnings this Friday. On deck is JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC).
A lot of traders like to trade around the earnings reports because of higher than normal option prices. These can lead to quick gains as well as quick losses. So you better know what you are doing. These are instant gratification trades, as once the news is out you will most likely know if you are making money or not. So this is a case where you better have an idea of what might happen.
Well to help you trade rationally here are some statistics derived from the last few earnings reports:
If JPM closes today at $57.67
On average expect it to close between $56.20 and $59.10 by the end of the week. If it goes according to the average, expect a $1.44 move in either direction by the end of the week. Out of the past 14 times it has gone down in price 7 times. If the largest change (up or down) over the past 14 earnings reports is repeated, expect a move more to the tune of $4.00 in either direction.
Perhaps this helps those option traders who like to buy or sell volatility around earnings. If you are long or short the market in general keep in mind that 9 out of the 14 previous earnings reports, the S&P 500 or SPY has ended the week in the same direction as JPM has from the earnings report to the close of the week of the earnings report. Something to consider if you have a position in the general market. Coincidence, correlation, whatever. Just be aware of the things that you might have overlooked. Remember if you are a short term trader it doesn’t pay to be right. It pays to be right, right now.
For those trading Wells Fargo:
If WFC closes today at $47.91
On average expect it to close between $46.80 and $49.00 by the end of the week. If it goes according to the average, expect a $1.10 move in either direction by the end of the week. Out of the past 14 times it has gained 11 times. If the largest change (up or down) over the past 14 earnings reports is repeated, expect a move more to the tune of $3.60 in either direction.
If you are long or short the market in general keep in mind that 11 out of the 14 previous earnings reports the S&P 500 or SPY has moved in the same direction as WFC has during the same time frame.
Good luck and trade rationally.