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Apple Earnings – January 27, 2015

With the introduction of larger phones, Apple is banking on higher sales.  Today we will find out if this strategy has paid off.  It’s up to you to have a strategy to make the news event work for you.

 

If AAPL closes today at $111.00:

On average expect it to close between $116.90 and $105.10 by the end of the week.  If it goes according to the average, expect a $5.90 move in either direction by the end of the week.  Out of the past 17 times it has gone down in price 8 times.  If the largest change (up or down) over the past 17 earnings reports is repeated, expect a move more to the tune of $17.30 in either direction.

It is always better to be prepared with proper expectations.  Having dreams of stock price moves that may only happen once every ten years is the easiest path to losses.

Good luck and trade rationally.

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Market Commentary – January 26, 2015

As the new year begins to take shape and certain market dynamics are beginning to play out has your trading style adjusted?  Despite a seemingly volatile 2015, most equity indices are flat for the year.  Your trading performance should be indicative of how you have weathered the storm that has taken broad equity markets everywhere, but ultimately nowhere.

Charts Courtesy of Yahoo Finance

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Market Commentary – December 30, 2014

The end of the year is upon us.  In terms of trading, the year end should just be a phase the market is passing through.  However, you should still set a resolution to be a more effective trader or investor.  The scorecard is resetting to zero soon.  That means prior results, both good and bad, should not be brought into the new year and either give you inflated confidence or extreme despair.  The odds of a winning trade are still the same.  Make it a point to stick to trades where the most likely outcome is a positive one.

Charts Courtesy of Yahoo Finance

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Market Commentary – November 4, 2014

Now that the market has scared investors away from buying the recent dip, will it scare investors into thinking they will miss the next leg up?

Charts Courtesy of Yahoo Finance

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Market Commentary – October 27, 2014

The market recovery from its last hiccup has come quickly and strongly.  Will this be the latest test of the bull market or has the stage been set up with a trap door?   With more earnings reports on the way and a wealth of economic data we just might be able to answer that question soon.

Charts Courtesy of Yahoo Finance

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Market Commentary – October 20, 2014

Is the sell off over?  Has the market flushed out the weaker players by instilling fear? Or is it just about to entice some sidelined investors into  buying into a trap door?

Charts Courtesy of Yahoo Finance

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Market Commentary – October 13, 2014

The global sell off has continued and so have the discussions of global market slowdowns and corrections.  Typically there are three frames of mind or trading styles that can occur in these volatile times.  The important thing is to recognize when the market is providing the conditions for your style to thrive.

Charts Courtesy of Yahoo Finance

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Market Commentary – September 29, 2014

With a recent sell off in the equities market, a new quarter on the horizon, and a wealth of economic data coming down the news pipeline there are no shortage of reasons to be actively watching this market.

Charts Courtesy of Yahoo Finance

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Market Commentary – September 3, 2014

Did you spend the summer holiday season successfully trading or successfully relaxing?  Now that the summer holiday season has drawn to a close it is time to start considering the rest of the year and make sure your trading strategies are ready to have a strong finish to the year.

Charts Courtesy of Yahoo Finance

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Nobody Goes Broke Taking Profits

An important concept to grasp when trading is to recognize when you have beaten the odds and it is time to cash out.  This is where the market will resemble a casino.  When you make an investment or trade you make a bet on a direction and magnitude, not unlike guessing the wind conditions.  Instead of thinking of probabilities and distributions of asset prices and so forth, let’s take a step back.  You made a guess (albeit an educated one) on the speed and direction of the wind. You got them both right.  Or maybe you are close, you guessed North 5 knots and the wind is blowing Northwest 4.2 knots.  Close enough.  The point is that you are in a profitable trade.  What do you do now?  You have several options: Continue reading “Nobody Goes Broke Taking Profits”