Are you ready for the US Employment report this month? The US Federal Reserve has shifted its policy on interest rates from being tied to an unemployment rate target to a broader set of objectives. Will the markets still react to the report?
Be prepared with some statistics for the ETFs that track the S&P 500 (SPY), Gold (GLD), US Ten Year Treasury Rates (IEF), and Oil (USO) . The numbers below represent, in absolute value, the size of the moves of the given category. For example, the overnight move (Day Before Close to Open on the day of the report, which is an hour after the report is released) for SPY (S&P500) is on average $1.89 up or down. So if you are making a directional trade or a volatility play, understand the size of the move you can expect.
Here are the current market reaction statistics on Employment Fridays using today’s levels. Here we are looking at popular ETFs: SPY (S&P 500); GLD (Gold); IEF (7-10 year US Treasuries); USO (Oil). The numbers here represent the range (plus or minus) that may be observed in each of the categories for each of the ETFs.
| Ticker | Spot Price | Open to Close on NFP Day | Day Before Close to Open on NFP Day | Day Before Close to Close on NFP Day | Typical 1 Standard Deviation |
| SPY | $188.31 | $1.38 | $1.89 | $1.42 | $2.28 |
| GLD | $123.65 | $0.81 | $1.62 | $1.25 | $1.61 |
| IEF | $102.54 | $0.24 | $0.35 | $0.26 | $0.46 |
| USO | $36.15 | $0.41 | $0.65 | $0.51 | $0.77 |
Even if the FOMC is not tying its policy to this report, the markets can still move. Make sure you are ready to execute your game plan for your trades.
Good luck and trade rationally.