Apple Earnings – January 27, 2015

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With the introduction of larger phones, Apple is banking on higher sales.  Today we will find out if this strategy has paid off.  It’s up to you to have a strategy to make the news event work for you.

 

If AAPL closes today at $111.00:

On average expect it to close between $116.90 and $105.10 by the end of the week.  If it goes according to the average, expect a $5.90 move in either direction by the end of the week.  Out of the past 17 times it has gone down in price 8 times.  If the largest change (up or down) over the past 17 earnings reports is repeated, expect a move more to the tune of $17.30 in either direction.

It is always better to be prepared with proper expectations.  Having dreams of stock price moves that may only happen once every ten years is the easiest path to losses.

Good luck and trade rationally.

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At the roulette wheel at Le Grande Casino in Monte Carlo, Monaco, the color black came up 26 times in a row. The probability of the occurrence was 1 in 136,823,184The incident is cited as an illustration of the gambler’s fallacy, because after the wheel stopped at black ten straight times, casino patrons began betting large sums of money on red, on the logic that black could not possibly come up again. The odds of red or black coming up on any individual spin were the same each time—18 out of 37; to no surprise of statisticians, “the casino made several million francs that night”.

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