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Apple Earnings – July 21, 2015

Is it time to watch the iWatch sales fall off?  Or is it time to pay attention to the fact that everyone has pretty much upgraded to an iphone 6?  It’s up to you to have a strategy to make the news event work for you.

 

If AAPL closes today at $131.00:

On average expect it to close between $137.90 and $124.10 by the end of the week.  If it goes according to the average, expect a $6.90 move in either direction by the end of the week.  Out of the past 19 times it has gone down in price 9 times.  If the largest change (up or down) over the past 17 earnings reports is repeated, expect a move more to the tune of $20.40 in either direction.  Currently the market is pricing in a $5.70-$6.25 move by the end of the week.

It is always better to be prepared with proper expectations.  Having dreams of stock price moves that may only happen once every ten years is the easiest path to losses.

Good luck and trade rationally.

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Market Commentary – April 27, 2015

Markets are at or near all time highs.  Traders and investors looking to hedge or take profits.  The usual headlines would lead you to believe that something dramatic should happen.

Charts Courtesy of Yahoo Finance.

Continue reading “Market Commentary – April 27, 2015”

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Apple Earnings – January 27, 2015

With the introduction of larger phones, Apple is banking on higher sales.  Today we will find out if this strategy has paid off.  It’s up to you to have a strategy to make the news event work for you.

 

If AAPL closes today at $111.00:

On average expect it to close between $116.90 and $105.10 by the end of the week.  If it goes according to the average, expect a $5.90 move in either direction by the end of the week.  Out of the past 17 times it has gone down in price 8 times.  If the largest change (up or down) over the past 17 earnings reports is repeated, expect a move more to the tune of $17.30 in either direction.

It is always better to be prepared with proper expectations.  Having dreams of stock price moves that may only happen once every ten years is the easiest path to losses.

Good luck and trade rationally.

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Market Commentary – January 26, 2015

As the new year begins to take shape and certain market dynamics are beginning to play out has your trading style adjusted?  Despite a seemingly volatile 2015, most equity indices are flat for the year.  Your trading performance should be indicative of how you have weathered the storm that has taken broad equity markets everywhere, but ultimately nowhere.

Charts Courtesy of Yahoo Finance

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Market Commentary – October 20, 2014

Is the sell off over?  Has the market flushed out the weaker players by instilling fear? Or is it just about to entice some sidelined investors into  buying into a trap door?

Charts Courtesy of Yahoo Finance

Continue reading “Market Commentary – October 20, 2014”

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You Asked For It – Priceline

The results of the latest poll are in and the most requested topic is Priceline.  There are many reasons why Priceline warrants a discussion.  Even though it is well below its all time high of about  USD$1379, it is still one of the faster growing stocks of the past 5 years.  Priceline was the first S&P 500 stock to trade over one thousand dollars per share.  With the next earnings report due shortly there is much to talk about.

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Earnings History – Netflix 1Q2014

It is time for one of the more volatile stocks (also a favorite in retail trading) to report earnings for the last quarter ending on Jan 31, 2014.  So will you be glued to Netflix or glued to the market in preparation for the earnings?

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Earnings History – JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo 1Q2014

The first of the major US banks report their first quarter 2014 earnings this Friday.  On deck is JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC).

A lot of traders like to trade around the earnings reports because of higher than normal option prices.  These can lead to quick gains as well as quick losses.  So you better know what you are doing.  These are instant gratification trades, as once the news is out you will most likely know if you are making money or not.  So this is a case where you better have an idea of what might happen.

Well to help you trade rationally here are some statistics derived from the last few earnings reports:

If JPM closes today at $57.67

On average expect it to close between $56.20 and $59.10 by the end of the week.  If it goes according to the average, expect a $1.44 move in either direction by the end of the week.  Out of the past 14 times it has gone down in price 7 times.  If the largest change (up or down) over the past 14 earnings reports is repeated, expect a move more to the tune of $4.00 in either direction.

Perhaps this helps those option traders who like to buy or sell volatility around earnings.  If you are long or short the market in general keep in mind that 9 out of the 14 previous earnings reports, the S&P 500 or SPY has ended the week in the same direction as JPM has from the earnings report to the close of the week of the earnings report.  Something to consider if you have a position in the general market.  Coincidence, correlation, whatever.  Just be aware of the things that you might have overlooked.  Remember if you are a short term trader it doesn’t pay to be right. It pays to be right, right now.

For those trading Wells Fargo:

If WFC closes today at $47.91

On average expect it to close between $46.80 and $49.00 by the end of the week.  If it goes according to the average, expect a $1.10 move in either direction by the end of the week.  Out of the past 14 times it has gained 11 times.  If the largest change (up or down) over the past 14 earnings reports is repeated, expect a move more to the tune of $3.60 in either direction.

If you are long or short the market in general keep in mind that 11 out of the 14 previous earnings reports the S&P 500 or SPY has moved in the same direction as WFC has during the same time frame.

Good luck and trade rationally.