The first of the major US banks report their first quarter 2014 earnings this Friday. On deck is JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC).
A lot of traders like to trade around the earnings reports because of higher than normal option prices. These can lead to quick gains as well as quick losses. So you better know what you are doing. These are instant gratification trades, as once the news is out you will most likely know if you are making money or not. So this is a case where you better have an idea of what might happen.
Well to help you trade rationally here are some statistics derived from the last few earnings reports:
If JPM closes today at $57.67
On average expect it to close between $56.20 and $59.10 by the end of the week. If it goes according to the average, expect a $1.44 move in either direction by the end of the week. Out of the past 14 times it has gone down in price 7 times. If the largest change (up or down) over the past 14 earnings reports is repeated, expect a move more to the tune of $4.00 in either direction.
Perhaps this helps those option traders who like to buy or sell volatility around earnings. If you are long or short the market in general keep in mind that 9 out of the 14 previous earnings reports, the S&P 500 or SPY has ended the week in the same direction as JPM has from the earnings report to the close of the week of the earnings report. Something to consider if you have a position in the general market. Coincidence, correlation, whatever. Just be aware of the things that you might have overlooked. Remember if you are a short term trader it doesn’t pay to be right. It pays to be right, right now.
For those trading Wells Fargo:
If WFC closes today at $47.91
On average expect it to close between $46.80 and $49.00 by the end of the week. If it goes according to the average, expect a $1.10 move in either direction by the end of the week. Out of the past 14 times it has gained 11 times. If the largest change (up or down) over the past 14 earnings reports is repeated, expect a move more to the tune of $3.60 in either direction.
If you are long or short the market in general keep in mind that 11 out of the 14 previous earnings reports the S&P 500 or SPY has moved in the same direction as WFC has during the same time frame.
Good luck and trade rationally.